Dutch Polls: Key Players and Main Issues in Early Election

The Situation and Why It Matters

Snap general elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in June, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.

The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after extended negotiations established a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.

Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.

He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.

Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.

No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could last months.

How the System Works and Political Landscape

The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.

Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a country-wide district: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.

As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.

In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.

Key Players and Primary Concerns

Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.

Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.

Nevertheless, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.

GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.

Led by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.

Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.

The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.

The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.

The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.

In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.

The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).

Potential New Government

Given the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).

After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.

Multiple options look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more minor groups potentially including the conservative party.